Comment Comment by GMoromisato The premise of the article hinges on the fact that it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future:> ... it’s impossible for us to know if a prediction is inevitable or not.But I think that ignores that some predictions are more likely to happen than others. For example, here are two predictions:1. ASI will be achieved in the next ten years.2. LLMs will have a large impact on the economy in the next ten years.I'm sure it's debatable, but I think prediction #2 is very likely to be true--I would say it's almost inevitable. But I don't think #1 is inevitable. parent GMoromisato 1 year ago
> ... it’s impossible for us to know if a prediction is inevitable or not.
But I think that ignores that some predictions are more likely to happen than others. For example, here are two predictions:
1. ASI will be achieved in the next ten years.
2. LLMs will have a large impact on the economy in the next ten years.
I'm sure it's debatable, but I think prediction #2 is very likely to be true--I would say it's almost inevitable. But I don't think #1 is inevitable.