It is not that the markets are tricky. Predicting what the Fed will do with interest rates is tricky. By lowering rates they feed more money into the market. Take a look at the last 15 years and you will realize the only thing that gave us a minor recession was COVID, adn that was becasue intrest rates were zero.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
But they can't do this for much longer, inflation is the first sign, which is why Trump is raising tariffs.
You can see Bond prices going up. Trumps tarrifs are aimed and lowering T Bill rates:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10