“However, it is very important that the uncertainty in the number of trials is taken into account because over-estimating a fraction is a costly mistake.“
Seems fairly clear to me that you’re supposed to use a lower bound estimate to take into account variance on the fraction due to the number of trials in a way to bounds the chance of over estimation.
Further, there is no need for a heuristic when there a several statistical models for this exact problem with clear properties. Some are given in the answer.
“However, it is very important that the uncertainty in the number of trials is taken into account because over-estimating a fraction is a costly mistake.“
Seems fairly clear to me that you’re supposed to use a lower bound estimate to take into account variance on the fraction due to the number of trials in a way to bounds the chance of over estimation.
Further, there is no need for a heuristic when there a several statistical models for this exact problem with clear properties. Some are given in the answer.