No as you and I both know - I can't. Because it's a qualitative view, and not a quantitative one. I would need to know _when_, quite precisely, I will turn out to be right.
And I don't know, because I have about 60 minutes a week to think about this, and also good quantitative market analysis is really hard.
So whilst it may sound like a good reposte to go "wow, I bet you make so much money shorting!" knowing that I don't and can't, it's also facile. Because I don't mind if I'm right in 12, 24 or 60 months. Fwiw, I thought I'd be right in 12 months, 12 months ago. Oops. Good thing I didn't attempt to "make money" in an endeavor where the upside is 100% of your wager, and the downside theoretically infinite.
And I don't know, because I have about 60 minutes a week to think about this, and also good quantitative market analysis is really hard.
So whilst it may sound like a good reposte to go "wow, I bet you make so much money shorting!" knowing that I don't and can't, it's also facile. Because I don't mind if I'm right in 12, 24 or 60 months. Fwiw, I thought I'd be right in 12 months, 12 months ago. Oops. Good thing I didn't attempt to "make money" in an endeavor where the upside is 100% of your wager, and the downside theoretically infinite.