In this case, you might have enough dead tuples across your heap that you might get a lot of HOT updates. If you are processing in insertion order, you will also probably process in heap order, and you can actually get 0 HOT updates since the other tuples in the page aren't fully dead yet. You could try using a lower fillfactor to avoid this, but that's also bad for performance so it might not help.
In this case, you might have enough dead tuples across your heap that you might get a lot of HOT updates. If you are processing in insertion order, you will also probably process in heap order, and you can actually get 0 HOT updates since the other tuples in the page aren't fully dead yet. You could try using a lower fillfactor to avoid this, but that's also bad for performance so it might not help.