If it has the potential to wipe out our entire species, but there's something we could do to prevent it (which I'm not sure about w/r/to asteroids), then it's worth looking out for the black swan event.
Doing some extremely rough math along these lines to double check myself:
* Gemini says that a dinosaur-extincting asteroid hits Earth about once every 100 million years. So in any given year that's 0.000001%.
* Economists say a human life is worth about 10 million dollars. There are about 8 billion people on Earth. So the total value of all human life is $80,000,000,000,000,000 (or 8e+16).
* So in any given year, the present value of asteroid protection is $800,000,000 (likelihood of an impact that year times value of the human life it would wipe out).
* The Guardian says the Vera Rubin telescope cost about $2,000,000,000 (2 billion).
By that measure, assuming the Rubin telescope prevents any dinosaur-extinction-level asteroid impacts, it will pay for itself in three years.
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843
Doing some extremely rough math along these lines to double check myself:
* Gemini says that a dinosaur-extincting asteroid hits Earth about once every 100 million years. So in any given year that's 0.000001%.
* Economists say a human life is worth about 10 million dollars. There are about 8 billion people on Earth. So the total value of all human life is $80,000,000,000,000,000 (or 8e+16).
* So in any given year, the present value of asteroid protection is $800,000,000 (likelihood of an impact that year times value of the human life it would wipe out).
* The Guardian says the Vera Rubin telescope cost about $2,000,000,000 (2 billion).
By that measure, assuming the Rubin telescope prevents any dinosaur-extinction-level asteroid impacts, it will pay for itself in three years.
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843