I don’t think the real divide is “doom tomorrow” vs “nothing to worry about.” The crux is a pretty straightforward philosophical question "what does it even mean to generalize intelligence and agency", how much can scaling laws tell us about that?
The back-and-forth over σ²’s and growth exponents feels like theatrics that bury the actual debate.
The back-and-forth over σ²’s and growth exponents feels like theatrics that bury the actual debate.