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Comment by mvATM99

Short answer: i use multiple metrics, never rely on just 1 metric.

Long answer: Is the metric for people with subject-matter knowledge? Then (Weighted)RMSSE, or the MASE alternative for a median forecast. WRMSSE is is very nice, it can deal with zeroes, is scale-invariant and symmetrical in penalizing under/over-forecasting.

The above metrics are completely uninterpretable to people outside of the forecasting sphere though. For those cases i tend to just stick with raw errors; if a percentage metric is really necessary then a Weighted MAPE/RMSE, the weighing is still graspable for most, and it doesn't explode with zeroes.

I've also been exploring FVA (Forecast Value Added), compared against a second decent forecast. FVA is very intuitive, if your base-measures are reliable at least. Aside from that i always look at forecast plots. It's tedious but they often tell you a lot that gets lost in the numbers.

RMSLE i havent used much. From what i read it looks interesting, though more for very specific scenarios (many outliers, high variance, nonlinear data?)

parent mvATM99 1 year ago

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