>> So what is your equity really worth?...
>> ...
>> The difference between the most recent FMV (409A) valuation and your exercise >> price. ...
>> The difference between the Preferred Price and your exercise price....
The real answer is that it is probably not worth anything unless they have stock liquidity events that only a handful of large startups have (e.g. Stripe.)
If you dont have that, the price is purely theoretical. Further, if you cannot see the cap table and the preference overhang -- and most startups wont let you see it -- then you have no idea what the real price is regardeless of a theoretical 409A value.
Even if you can see the cap table, spending today-dollars and exercising options for the right to sell stock 5 or 10yrs into the future almost never works out -- the cone of uncertainty across 5 or 10yrs is far too great. The better move would probably to be to use that money to purchase long-dated LEAP call options on the Nasdaq Composite
The real answer is that it is probably not worth anything unless they have stock liquidity events that only a handful of large startups have (e.g. Stripe.)
If you dont have that, the price is purely theoretical. Further, if you cannot see the cap table and the preference overhang -- and most startups wont let you see it -- then you have no idea what the real price is regardeless of a theoretical 409A value.
Even if you can see the cap table, spending today-dollars and exercising options for the right to sell stock 5 or 10yrs into the future almost never works out -- the cone of uncertainty across 5 or 10yrs is far too great. The better move would probably to be to use that money to purchase long-dated LEAP call options on the Nasdaq Composite