> Still, while it is basically impossible to predict with any confidence what AI will do in 20 or 30 years, one can say something about the next decade, because most of these near-term economic effects must involve existing technologies and improvements to them.
I think you would be hard pressed to find someone who was making adequate predictions about where we would be now back in 2020, much less 2015, and if you did, I doubt many people would have taken them seriously.
I’d argue that we can currently speak with some level of confidence about what things will be like in three years. After that, who knows?
I think you would be hard pressed to find someone who was making adequate predictions about where we would be now back in 2020, much less 2015, and if you did, I doubt many people would have taken them seriously.
I’d argue that we can currently speak with some level of confidence about what things will be like in three years. After that, who knows?