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Here is the state of venture capital in early 2025: Venture capital is moribund except AI. AI is moribund except OpenAI. OpenAI is a weird scam that wants to burn money so fast it summons AI God. Nobody can cash out.The interesting thing, to me, is how speculative OpenAI's bet is.
IIRC it was 2019 when I tinkered with the versions of GPT 2.0 that had web interfaces, and they were interesting toys. Then I began using ChatGPT since its launch, which was around Dec 2022, and that was a profound paradigm shift. It showed real emergent behavior and it was capable of very interesting things.
2019 - 2022 was three years. No hype, no trillions of dollars invested, but tremendous progress.
Now, there has been progress in the part ~three years in synthetic benchmarks, but the feeling with ChatGPT 4.5 today is still the same as it was with GPT-3/GPT-4 in 2022. 4.5/o3 doesn't seem hugely more intelligent then 3.0 -- it hallucinates less, and it's capable of running web searches and doing directed research -- but it's no paradigm shift. If things keep progressing the way they're going, we'll get better interfaces and more tools, but it's far from clear that superintelligence (more-than-human insight, skill, and inventiveness,) is even possible with LLMs.
The interesting thing, to me, is how speculative OpenAI's bet is.
IIRC it was 2019 when I tinkered with the versions of GPT 2.0 that had web interfaces, and they were interesting toys. Then I began using ChatGPT since its launch, which was around Dec 2022, and that was a profound paradigm shift. It showed real emergent behavior and it was capable of very interesting things.
2019 - 2022 was three years. No hype, no trillions of dollars invested, but tremendous progress.
Now, there has been progress in the part ~three years in synthetic benchmarks, but the feeling with ChatGPT 4.5 today is still the same as it was with GPT-3/GPT-4 in 2022. 4.5/o3 doesn't seem hugely more intelligent then 3.0 -- it hallucinates less, and it's capable of running web searches and doing directed research -- but it's no paradigm shift. If things keep progressing the way they're going, we'll get better interfaces and more tools, but it's far from clear that superintelligence (more-than-human insight, skill, and inventiveness,) is even possible with LLMs.