Why is "guessed" in quotes in the HN headline. That word does not appear in the article. They even say the following:
>The Bocconi team is the first to point out the limitations of the model. “We do not claim to predict the outcome of the Conclave,” Soda points out. “As the great statistician George Box said: ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’ Ours is intended to be a tool for reading the context, not an oracle.”
Trying to take a victory lap on something like this seems to fly in the face of the statistical thinking that goes into creating a model like this.
>The Bocconi team is the first to point out the limitations of the model. “We do not claim to predict the outcome of the Conclave,” Soda points out. “As the great statistician George Box said: ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’ Ours is intended to be a tool for reading the context, not an oracle.”
Trying to take a victory lap on something like this seems to fly in the face of the statistical thinking that goes into creating a model like this.