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Comment by austin-cheney

It will almost certainly contract more significantly into the second quarter as well. Many businesses remain reliant upon goods from China and are taken a massive financial hit on purchases now, but they are also waiting for the trade war to cool off before making future purchases. That will create a demand rush once the tariffs cool down and if they don't cool down these businesses will continue to have the same financial troubles but will also have inventory problems too.

In short, it must get worse before it can get better irrespective of what happens next or when.

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