About as soon as GPT-4 came out I said that OpenAI was doomed on the trajectory it was on because they could not afford to develop a GPT-5, GPT-6, etc.
Real innovation comes out of doing a lot of experiments and that means doing experiments quickly with the resources you have. So you do most of your experiments with non-frontier models, enough to make a good prediction of what would happen if you maxxed out your model size, then you go big. That's how you make everyone else have a "DeepSeek moment".
A company like Apple wants to pick something on the frontier and keep advancing on a straight line. Works great if you want to make an M1, M2, M3, ... ARM chip but that's not how progress works in AI today.
About as soon as GPT-4 came out I said that OpenAI was doomed on the trajectory it was on because they could not afford to develop a GPT-5, GPT-6, etc.
Real innovation comes out of doing a lot of experiments and that means doing experiments quickly with the resources you have. So you do most of your experiments with non-frontier models, enough to make a good prediction of what would happen if you maxxed out your model size, then you go big. That's how you make everyone else have a "DeepSeek moment".
A company like Apple wants to pick something on the frontier and keep advancing on a straight line. Works great if you want to make an M1, M2, M3, ... ARM chip but that's not how progress works in AI today.