This is such tired debate that comes up whenever 538 is mentioned in discussion. Polls sample an election's outcome many times throughout the campaign. Statistics works. You can't know the future but you can predict it with error bars. 51/49 or 70/30 should tell you there's a very real chance of a Trump victory.
People get bent out of shape about 538 but it's usually because they're misinterpreting the prediction, not that the prediction is meaningless.
People get bent out of shape about 538 but it's usually because they're misinterpreting the prediction, not that the prediction is meaningless.