Not the Atlanta Fed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model [1].
It’s pretty good [2]. And we are seeing a flattening of 2024’s aggregate wage growth of 4.15%. But the difference in wages is like 0.42% which is indistinguishable from noise. (GDPNow predicted a phantom recession in 2022.)
In this case, the model is probably recording a surge in January imports without “an offsetting increase in inventories,” as “that is a lagging indicator” [3].
It’s pretty good [2]. And we are seeing a flattening of 2024’s aggregate wage growth of 4.15%. But the difference in wages is like 0.42% which is indistinguishable from noise. (GDPNow predicted a phantom recession in 2022.)
In this case, the model is probably recording a surge in January imports without “an offsetting increase in inventories,” as “that is a lagging indicator” [3].
[1] https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/public...
[2] https://caia.org/blog/2024/08/15/increased-accuracy-gdp-mode...
[3] https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn...