Comment

Comment by formerly_proven

There's one graph that basically predicts which countries are going to fail and which are going to prevail. It's the graph that shows how many people in the "doing things" age bracket a country has.

Compare these:

(germany) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilis...

(alternatively, Europe as a whole) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilis...

(Japan) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=392&type=Probabilis...

(China) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=156&type=Probabilis...

to this one

(US) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=840&type=Probabilis...

A key aggravating factor is most countries in the first group have stagnating productivity and the country in the second group has raising productivity on top. This creates a compound advantage for the country in the second group.

It seems likely to me that there is almost no degree of anti-national behavior the government of that country would need to exhibit or no amount of country-eroding policies that could forfeit this fundamental advantage. They'd need to get their country literally nuked or something similarly catastrophic.

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton