Our ability to predict technological "replacement" is pretty shoddy.
Take banking for example.
ATMs are literally called "teller machines." Internet banking is a way of "automating banking."
Besides those, every administrative aspect of banking went from paper to computer.
Do banks employ fewer people? Is it a smaller industry? No. Banks grew steadily over these decades.
It's actually shocking how little network enabled PCs impacted administrative employment. Universities, for example, employ far more administrative staff than they did before PC automated many of their tasks.
At one point (during and after dotcom), PayPal and suchlike were threatening to "turn billion dollar businesses into million dollar businesses." Reality went in the opposite direction.
We need to stop analogizing everything in the economy to manufacturing. Manufacturing is unique in its long term tendency to efficiency.other industries don't work that way.
Take banking for example.
ATMs are literally called "teller machines." Internet banking is a way of "automating banking."
Besides those, every administrative aspect of banking went from paper to computer.
Do banks employ fewer people? Is it a smaller industry? No. Banks grew steadily over these decades.
It's actually shocking how little network enabled PCs impacted administrative employment. Universities, for example, employ far more administrative staff than they did before PC automated many of their tasks.
At one point (during and after dotcom), PayPal and suchlike were threatening to "turn billion dollar businesses into million dollar businesses." Reality went in the opposite direction.
We need to stop analogizing everything in the economy to manufacturing. Manufacturing is unique in its long term tendency to efficiency.other industries don't work that way.