I think the big picture that many people are missing here is the motivation that all these AI/tech companies have for buying up so many GPU's in the first place: achieving AGI/ASI.
And while some still try to portray a dedication/duty to AI Alignment, I think most have either secretly or more publicly moved away from it in the race to become the first to achieve it.
And I think, given that inference time compute is so much cheaper than pre-training, the first to achieve AGI might have enough compute on hand from having been to first to build it that they would not need to purchase many more GPU's from Nvidia. So at some point, Nvidia's revenues are going to decline precipitously.
So the question is: how far away are we from AGI? Seems like most experts estimate 3-10 years. Did that timeline just shrink by 50x (or at least by some multiple) from these new optimizations from DeepSeek?
I think Nvidia's revenue is going to continue to grow at its current pace (or faster) until AGI is achieved. Just sell your positions right before that happens.
(Not an expert. Not even an amateur)
And while some still try to portray a dedication/duty to AI Alignment, I think most have either secretly or more publicly moved away from it in the race to become the first to achieve it.
And I think, given that inference time compute is so much cheaper than pre-training, the first to achieve AGI might have enough compute on hand from having been to first to build it that they would not need to purchase many more GPU's from Nvidia. So at some point, Nvidia's revenues are going to decline precipitously.
So the question is: how far away are we from AGI? Seems like most experts estimate 3-10 years. Did that timeline just shrink by 50x (or at least by some multiple) from these new optimizations from DeepSeek?
I think Nvidia's revenue is going to continue to grow at its current pace (or faster) until AGI is achieved. Just sell your positions right before that happens.
(Not an expert. Not even an amateur)