All past data shows is exponential growth in the cost of AI systems, not an exponential growth in capability. Capabilities have certainly expanded, but that is hard to measure. The growth curve is just as likely to be sigmoid-shaped. Just a phase transition from "computers process information strictly procedurally" to "computers use fuzzy logic sometimes too". And if we've exhausted all the easy wins, that explains the increased interest in alternative scaling paths.
Obviously predicting the future is hard, and we won't know where this stops till we get there. But I think a degree of skepticism is warranted.
Obviously predicting the future is hard, and we won't know where this stops till we get there. But I think a degree of skepticism is warranted.