>raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years
That is really not true anymore unless there will be a new technology that can do much better than silicon electronics. Doesn't mean that were safe, but it's not that clear.
Edit: to expand, a single transistor is made of a pretty pedestrian number of atoms these days. The gate pitch of TSMC "3 nm" is about 40 nm (not all of which is transistor) and silicon atoms are about 0.2 nm apart. So you have, let's say, 30^3 / 0.2^3 ~= 3 million atoms in a transistor. There is no room for another 10^6 improvement because a transistor with just a few atoms probably wouldn't work, the thermal noise would dominate it. Paraphrasing the famous Feynman quote, there isn't much room at the botton anymore, now.
That is really not true anymore unless there will be a new technology that can do much better than silicon electronics. Doesn't mean that were safe, but it's not that clear.
Edit: to expand, a single transistor is made of a pretty pedestrian number of atoms these days. The gate pitch of TSMC "3 nm" is about 40 nm (not all of which is transistor) and silicon atoms are about 0.2 nm apart. So you have, let's say, 30^3 / 0.2^3 ~= 3 million atoms in a transistor. There is no room for another 10^6 improvement because a transistor with just a few atoms probably wouldn't work, the thermal noise would dominate it. Paraphrasing the famous Feynman quote, there isn't much room at the botton anymore, now.