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Comment by 082349872349872

So what's your take on Gwern's 2030 estimate?

I've only been playing around with free LLMs and GANs for the moment, but they definitely seem to be more on the cargo culting stochastic parrot side, in that (for the former) I can make queries that self-contain all the elements for a sol'n and they don't find it, and (for the latter) they go into the weeds on what I'd think were simple, SHRLDU-level, compositions.

That said, I hadn't expected we'd even get this far so quickly, so ???

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