Facebook is like AOL and MySpace. It will remain popular. It will make a lot of money. It will make its founders rich. It won't live up to its hype. Given its closed, proprietary nature, it won't be where true innovation happens on the web.
I don't blame the Facebook crew for the overhyping of their product. That blame rests with the investment community, tech journalists, and a reasonable-sized chunk of the blogosphere, who collectively are about as discerning as a clique of 15-year-old girls. They think that what's "hot" is whatever they think everyone else thinks is "hot," which creates an echo-chamber effect surrounding every half-way successful web business that comes down the pike.
I don't blame the Facebook crew for the overhyping of their product. That blame rests with the investment community, tech journalists, and a reasonable-sized chunk of the blogosphere, who collectively are about as discerning as a clique of 15-year-old girls. They think that what's "hot" is whatever they think everyone else thinks is "hot," which creates an echo-chamber effect surrounding every half-way successful web business that comes down the pike.