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Ask HN: What are the algorithms used by predictions markets like Polymarket?

I am curious how prediction markets like polymarket and kalshi work behind the scenes. I assume it's more like stock options than sports betting.

Is there something like a market maker to help provide liquidity?

Is it setting probabilities/prices using something like black-scholes?

How would you design a very simple prediction market MVP?

7 points callmeed 2 years ago 10 comments

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