When progress decouples from investment is when I'd say there is a true bubble. But so far progress has continued to soar.
Nobody thinks GPT4-o1 or Sonnet 3.5 is going to change the world. People are looking at the past 2-3 years though and extrapolating forward, and right now they don't see any evidence that progress will slow down. Quite the opposite actually.
As for where that value will manifest itself the most in the stock market? That's probably where this guy is getting hung up.
Nobody thinks GPT4-o1 or Sonnet 3.5 is going to change the world. People are looking at the past 2-3 years though and extrapolating forward, and right now they don't see any evidence that progress will slow down. Quite the opposite actually.
As for where that value will manifest itself the most in the stock market? That's probably where this guy is getting hung up.