> There's no a priori reason why the expected success rate of research projects should be 50% and not, say, 1% or 99%.
Humans are really bad at predicting the future, so I'd argue that the large majority should be between 49% and 51%. A 99% success rate would imply that humans can predict the future, which I think is pretty much the opposite of how science should work.
Humans are really bad at predicting the future, so I'd argue that the large majority should be between 49% and 51%. A 99% success rate would imply that humans can predict the future, which I think is pretty much the opposite of how science should work.