This goes beyond project estimations. The Metaculus tournaments have questions like
> Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1?
These are the kinds of questions most people I meet would claim are impossible to forecast accurately on because of their supposed uniqueness, yet the Metaculus community does it again and again.
I believe the problem is a lack of statistical literacy. Back in the 1500s shipping insurance was priced under the assumption that if you just learned enough about the voyage you could tell for certain whether it would be successful or not. It took a revolution in mindset to ignore everything that makes a shipment unique and instead focus on what a primitive reference class of them have in common, and infer general success propensities from that.
Most people I meet still don't understand this, and I think it will be a few more generations until statistical literacy is as widespread as the literal one.
> Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1?
These are the kinds of questions most people I meet would claim are impossible to forecast accurately on because of their supposed uniqueness, yet the Metaculus community does it again and again.
I believe the problem is a lack of statistical literacy. Back in the 1500s shipping insurance was priced under the assumption that if you just learned enough about the voyage you could tell for certain whether it would be successful or not. It took a revolution in mindset to ignore everything that makes a shipment unique and instead focus on what a primitive reference class of them have in common, and infer general success propensities from that.
Most people I meet still don't understand this, and I think it will be a few more generations until statistical literacy is as widespread as the literal one.