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Comment by underlipton

Another view: a lot of people were laid off at the beginning of 2020. To prevent a total meltdown, unemployment assistance was made unusually robust (for the US). With the stimulus, it was not unheard of for people to be getting more in unemployment than they'd ever made actually working. Likewise, PPP loans meant that anyone with even a trivial business and a handful of employees could apply for support.

The "Great Resignation" (a clever bit of branding; people were moving to better jobs, not resigning) coincided with that easy money drying up. Businesses had to actually start making money again, as did workers (many of whom re-skilled during the pandemic). Higher-than-normal employment migration might have just been people coming out of unemployment, gig work, and whatever jobs they took just to ride out the crisis.

Also, high inflation coincided with the increased numbers at many companies. The layoffs came after inflation started to cool (probably an important contributor to stagnating wage growth), and probably were related to the Fed continuing to raise interest rates and putting off a pivot to dropping them until... Well, they still haven't done a cut, yet.

parent underlipton 2 years ago

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