Comment by rachofsunshine

That's probably not the correct analysis, because the number you're trying to estimate is not P(a crime occurs near you), it's P(you will personally be the victim of a crime). Crime rate over density won't necessarily do that either (since the population density of a primarily commercial+touristy area, e.g. Fisherman's Wharf, is << the number of people who are present there on a given day), but neither does raw count.