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Comment by roenxi

There is quite a lot of circumstantial evidence that the US's industrial capabilities have mean-reverted from the middle of the century where they were a stand-out superpower (partly because the other industrialists, Europe, engaged in something that looked like a big civil war). Things like energy trends, growth rates, locus of new industries, the decline of the US to using money printing strategies, environmentalism in the West, etc.

It is plausible that China is the economy in the global drivers seat now. If they are, then attempts to limit their economy will probably bounce off - unless violence is used, the laws of economics favour those who work hard, invest and are honest about what is affordable. The evidence suggests China does those things better than the US (although it is probably fairly knife-edge, both countries have out-of-control levels of government intervention in markets but at some point China will probably do something stupidly authoritarian).

This report is interesting in light of that frame.

parent roenxi 2 years ago

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