I was wondering when someone would bring up Taleb RE: this incident.
I know you aren't saying it is, but I think Taleb would argue that this incident, as he did with the coronavirus pandemic for example, isn't even a Black Swan event. It was extremely easy to predict, and you had a large number of experts warning people about it for years but being ignored. A Black Swan is unpredictable and unexpected, not something totally predictable that you decided not to prepare for anyways.
I know you aren't saying it is, but I think Taleb would argue that this incident, as he did with the coronavirus pandemic for example, isn't even a Black Swan event. It was extremely easy to predict, and you had a large number of experts warning people about it for years but being ignored. A Black Swan is unpredictable and unexpected, not something totally predictable that you decided not to prepare for anyways.