How can anyone not see just how impactful it's going to be? Or already is? I can't think of a single recent technology that was so widely adopted by tech and non-tech people alike, immediately integrated into day-to-day experience. The rise of mobile phones and e-commerce in the 90s would be the last time I've seen this happen (I'm not counting smartphones, as those are more of an iteration). Or social media, in purely software space.
I've just had GPT-4o write me a full-featured 2048 clone in ~6 hours of casual chat, in between of work, making dinner, and playing with kids; it cost me some $4 in OpenAI bills, and I didn't write a single line of code. I see non-tech people around me using ChatGPT for anything from comparison shopping to recipe adjustments. One person recently said to me that their dietitian is afraid for their career prospects because ChatGPT is already doing this job better than she is. This is a small fraction of cases in my family&friends circle; anyone who hasn't lived under the rock, or wasn't blinded by the memetic equivalent of looking at a nuclear weapon detonation, likely has a lot of similar things to say. And all of that is not will, it's is, right now.
I've just had GPT-4o write me a full-featured 2048 clone in ~6 hours of casual chat, in between of work, making dinner, and playing with kids; it cost me some $4 in OpenAI bills, and I didn't write a single line of code. I see non-tech people around me using ChatGPT for anything from comparison shopping to recipe adjustments. One person recently said to me that their dietitian is afraid for their career prospects because ChatGPT is already doing this job better than she is. This is a small fraction of cases in my family&friends circle; anyone who hasn't lived under the rock, or wasn't blinded by the memetic equivalent of looking at a nuclear weapon detonation, likely has a lot of similar things to say. And all of that is not will, it's is, right now.