HBO is already facing down that risk from FX and AMC, two rival channels owned by different companies offering comparably high-quality shows on basic cable.
My point isn't that this moots HBO's sensitivity to (say) Netflix doing the next Game of Thrones, but rather that it's unlikely HBO is going to move to preempt that. HBO does not appear to have reacted to Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Justified, or Sons of Anarchy as existential threats to their business.
If Netflix is the threat that is going to motivate HBO to go direct to consumer, they're going to have to put their money and their execution where their mouth is first. I have my doubts that they're equipped to pull that off, because I think they have an adverse selection problem: for prestige reasons, the best content is going to hit HBO, then Showtime, then AMC, and so on down the line.
My point isn't that this moots HBO's sensitivity to (say) Netflix doing the next Game of Thrones, but rather that it's unlikely HBO is going to move to preempt that. HBO does not appear to have reacted to Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Justified, or Sons of Anarchy as existential threats to their business.
If Netflix is the threat that is going to motivate HBO to go direct to consumer, they're going to have to put their money and their execution where their mouth is first. I have my doubts that they're equipped to pull that off, because I think they have an adverse selection problem: for prestige reasons, the best content is going to hit HBO, then Showtime, then AMC, and so on down the line.