Technology revolution means different thing to different people
- technological change, consumer benefit
- investing opportunity.
If you compare to internet revolution consumer benefit increased steadily, but as a general investment category it was total bust. During the internet revolution, Top 5 internet companies were Yahoo.com, AOL.com, Geocities.com, MSN.com, and Lycos.com. It took almost 10 years to Amazon stock to recover from 1999 average price longer to become a good investment. Cisco was the Nvidia of late 90s.
How about personal computer revolution? Tandy, Commodore, Atari, Apple, Acorn, Sinclair, IBM, ...
I can do basic back-on-the-envelope math as a retail investor. I pick investment forecasts for the global AI impact from a13z, Goldman Sachs, Nvidia, for the next 5 to 10 years. Then I do basic cash flow discounting.
How the fuck these valuations make sense?
At some time in next 2-4 years there can be a crash and "dark fiber" equivalent for compute. Tensor compute prices crater and are dominated by energy prices. That's when the high impact innovations emerge to exploit all that available compute.
- technological change, consumer benefit
- investing opportunity.
If you compare to internet revolution consumer benefit increased steadily, but as a general investment category it was total bust. During the internet revolution, Top 5 internet companies were Yahoo.com, AOL.com, Geocities.com, MSN.com, and Lycos.com. It took almost 10 years to Amazon stock to recover from 1999 average price longer to become a good investment. Cisco was the Nvidia of late 90s.
How about personal computer revolution? Tandy, Commodore, Atari, Apple, Acorn, Sinclair, IBM, ...
I can do basic back-on-the-envelope math as a retail investor. I pick investment forecasts for the global AI impact from a13z, Goldman Sachs, Nvidia, for the next 5 to 10 years. Then I do basic cash flow discounting. How the fuck these valuations make sense?
At some time in next 2-4 years there can be a crash and "dark fiber" equivalent for compute. Tensor compute prices crater and are dominated by energy prices. That's when the high impact innovations emerge to exploit all that available compute.