"Software estimation is such a mess in part because it has trouble recognizing that, at least, just-in-time learning is at least non-normally distributed. Everything we know about traditional project management, from Waterfall to Gantt charts to estimation practices, are on some level based around the idea that each individual step in the chain is bell-shaped: [..]"
From experience I 100% agree with this, but it always caused a certain cognitive dissonance when thinking about project management approaches.
A project is by definition a time bound one time endeavor. It is something where the crucial parts have never been done before. The unknown is the defining characteristic. Learning should be a defining characteristic as well, yet many approaches pretend it's a small part at best.
My working theory is that the majority of "projects" that are typically used as comparison with IT projects (like construction) are not real projects at all. Real projects are rare (e.g. Burj Khalifa).
In IT the ratio is the opposite. The real projects dominate and the "construction sites" are still the minority. But we can expect this to change.
Thinking this to the end would mean that we could see a resurgence of waterfall in IT - likely under a different name.
From experience I 100% agree with this, but it always caused a certain cognitive dissonance when thinking about project management approaches.
A project is by definition a time bound one time endeavor. It is something where the crucial parts have never been done before. The unknown is the defining characteristic. Learning should be a defining characteristic as well, yet many approaches pretend it's a small part at best.
My working theory is that the majority of "projects" that are typically used as comparison with IT projects (like construction) are not real projects at all. Real projects are rare (e.g. Burj Khalifa).
In IT the ratio is the opposite. The real projects dominate and the "construction sites" are still the minority. But we can expect this to change.
Thinking this to the end would mean that we could see a resurgence of waterfall in IT - likely under a different name.