Comment

Comment by questhimay

China is not going to be able to invade Taiwan, it's too old and too broke to do so. Too old as in its demographics will be 30% over 60 years old in 10 years. Too broke as in the local governments are bankrupt, and the central government is barely hanging on, so much so that it had to issue ultra long bonds in 2 of the last 3 years. Keep in mind that Chinese government differs from other governments in that the other governments source of main revenue is taxes. Whereas the Chinese government has the revenue from all the state owned enterprises which are monopolies in major industries such as banking and oil. so if the Chinese government still can't get enough revenue from those state owned enterprises to cover existing debt payments, it is pretty fucked.

It's also hard to attack an opponent, when the opponent has been preparing for a number of years, with its allies. US, Japan, Australia, India.

parent questhimay 2 years ago

Discussion

Live from the official Hacker News API

A modern reader for Hacker News · SvelteKit + Skeleton