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Comment by nathan_compton

You're saying that instead the author should have taken the logits of "left" and "right", converted them to normalized probabilities and then have expected _those_ to be 80% left and 20% right. But if this were the case (under some reasonable assumptions about the sampling methodology of the providers) then the author would have seen an 80/20 split. From these results we can probably conclude that with this prompt the predicted probability for "left" is near 100% for GPT4.

I think the author's point stands. They aren't asking "what would you expect from a distribution so described?" The answer to that question is 100% of the time "left.". A well behaving LLM responding to the actual question should distribute the logits across "left" and "right" in the way requested by the user and doesn't.

I think if you chose 1000 random people and prompted them with this question you would get a preponderance of "lefts" compared to the prompt, but not 100% left.

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