It seems to me that the most likely outcome is that some money will opaquely change hands and that TikTok will remain available, either because of a shell game divestiture or because of a policy change. There's just too much money at stake.
But even if that doesn't happen, and the US state starts to regard TikTok as banned, what makes anyone think people will stop using it?
Many western resources are banned in China, and it seems that the primary effect of this is simply the proliferation of tools to subvert the ban.
One thing I don't understand, at a high level: how, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, can anyone believe that the internet will shape itself around the whims of legacy states on anything but very short timescales?
There is no case of successful censorship of this nature, let alone with such a large and popular resource. Conversely, there are many, many cases of failed attempts at censorship, even by the largest and most powerful states and corporations in the world.
Is there some reason to believe that this trend will very suddenly reverse?
But even if that doesn't happen, and the US state starts to regard TikTok as banned, what makes anyone think people will stop using it?
Many western resources are banned in China, and it seems that the primary effect of this is simply the proliferation of tools to subvert the ban.
One thing I don't understand, at a high level: how, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, can anyone believe that the internet will shape itself around the whims of legacy states on anything but very short timescales?
There is no case of successful censorship of this nature, let alone with such a large and popular resource. Conversely, there are many, many cases of failed attempts at censorship, even by the largest and most powerful states and corporations in the world.
Is there some reason to believe that this trend will very suddenly reverse?