There are almost 200 countries in the world. Even if the US and the EU and a bunch more ban open weight models, I doubt they'll succeed in convincing every country to do so. And whichever countries decide not to follow the ban, could thereby give their own AI industries a big boost. As the world becomes ever more globalised, the potential effectiveness of these kinds of policies declines.
Sure, they could try to negotiate some kind of UN convention for a coordinated global ban. But, given how fractured global diplomacy has become, I doubt the odds of something like that succeeding are particularly high.
Sure, they could try to negotiate some kind of UN convention for a coordinated global ban. But, given how fractured global diplomacy has become, I doubt the odds of something like that succeeding are particularly high.