Working for about a year in an environment that was exposed to high volume of malevolent IT actors (and some pretty scary ones) I’d say: discovery chances very always pretty high.
Keeping veil of secrecy requires unimaginable amount of energy. Same goes with truth consistency. One little slip and everything goes to nothing. Sometimes single sentence can start a chain of reaction and uncover meticulous crafted plan.
That’s how crime if fought every day. Whereas police work has limited resources, software is analyzed daily by hobbyists as a hobby, professionals who still do it for a hobby, and professionals for professional reasons.
Discovery was bound to happen eventually.
XZ attack was very well executed. It’s a master piece. I wouldn’t be surprised if some state agencies would be involved. But it also was incredibly lucky. I know for sure for myself, but also many of my colleagues would go into long journey if found any of issues that are flagged right now.
One takeaway is that chance of finding such issue would be impossible if xz/liblzma wouldn’t be open source (and yes I am also aware it enabled it in the first place) but imagine this existing in Windows or MacOS.
Keeping veil of secrecy requires unimaginable amount of energy. Same goes with truth consistency. One little slip and everything goes to nothing. Sometimes single sentence can start a chain of reaction and uncover meticulous crafted plan.
That’s how crime if fought every day. Whereas police work has limited resources, software is analyzed daily by hobbyists as a hobby, professionals who still do it for a hobby, and professionals for professional reasons.
Discovery was bound to happen eventually.
XZ attack was very well executed. It’s a master piece. I wouldn’t be surprised if some state agencies would be involved. But it also was incredibly lucky. I know for sure for myself, but also many of my colleagues would go into long journey if found any of issues that are flagged right now.
One takeaway is that chance of finding such issue would be impossible if xz/liblzma wouldn’t be open source (and yes I am also aware it enabled it in the first place) but imagine this existing in Windows or MacOS.