I would presume it's a state actor. Generally in the blackhat world, attackers have very precise targets. They want to attack this company or this group of individuals. But someone who backdoors such a core piece of open source infrastructure wants to cast a wide net to attack as many as possible. So that fits the profile of a government intelligence agency who is interested in surveilling, well, everything.
Or it could in theory be malware authors (ransomware, etc). However these guys tend to aim at the low hanging fruits. They want to make a buck quickly. I don't think they have the patience and persistence to infiltrate an open source project for 2 long years to finally gain enough trust and access to backdoor it. On the other hand, a state actor is in for the long term, so they would spend that much time (and more) to accomplish that.
So that's my guess: Jia Tan is an employee of some intelligence agency. He chose to present an asian persona, but that's not necessarily who he truly represents. Could be anyone, really: Russia, China, Israel, or even the US, etc.
Edit: given that Lasse Collin was the only maintainer of xz utils in 2022 before Jia Tan, I wouldn't be surprised if the state actor interfered with Lasse somehow. They could have done anything to distract him from the project: introduce a mistress in his life, give him a high-paying job, make his spouse sick so he has to care for her, etc. With Lasse not having as many hours to spend on the project, he would have been more likely to give access to a developer who shows up around the same time and who is highly motivated to contribute code. I would be interested to talk to Lasse to understand his circumstances around 2022.
Or it could in theory be malware authors (ransomware, etc). However these guys tend to aim at the low hanging fruits. They want to make a buck quickly. I don't think they have the patience and persistence to infiltrate an open source project for 2 long years to finally gain enough trust and access to backdoor it. On the other hand, a state actor is in for the long term, so they would spend that much time (and more) to accomplish that.
So that's my guess: Jia Tan is an employee of some intelligence agency. He chose to present an asian persona, but that's not necessarily who he truly represents. Could be anyone, really: Russia, China, Israel, or even the US, etc.
Edit: given that Lasse Collin was the only maintainer of xz utils in 2022 before Jia Tan, I wouldn't be surprised if the state actor interfered with Lasse somehow. They could have done anything to distract him from the project: introduce a mistress in his life, give him a high-paying job, make his spouse sick so he has to care for her, etc. With Lasse not having as many hours to spend on the project, he would have been more likely to give access to a developer who shows up around the same time and who is highly motivated to contribute code. I would be interested to talk to Lasse to understand his circumstances around 2022.