'Caught by surprise' is a weird description. Israeli press has repeatedly run stories about how frontline analysts sounding the alarm were ignored.
That could be due to things like sexism, ageism or discrimination against conscripts, or it could be due to the settler organisations having their people in government and a strong wish to resettle the Gaza strip.
Either way, the signals were there, they had been watching the preparations and exercises for a year or so. Even if the resistance groups had kept that secret even a mediocre officer in intelligence or the army should be able to conclude from 'first principles' and what they were doing that there would eventually be a violent response.
That could be due to things like sexism, ageism or discrimination against conscripts, or it could be due to the settler organisations having their people in government and a strong wish to resettle the Gaza strip.
Either way, the signals were there, they had been watching the preparations and exercises for a year or so. Even if the resistance groups had kept that secret even a mediocre officer in intelligence or the army should be able to conclude from 'first principles' and what they were doing that there would eventually be a violent response.