Eh, the second part to me seems like a less useful forecasting. Generally it seems fore asting is focused on human/political events that obviously don't already have useful modelling.
For climate change, there's already a lot of existing models out there calculated by much more rigorous metrics than "the Laplace rule" or just naively adding together averages.
For climate change, there's already a lot of existing models out there calculated by much more rigorous metrics than "the Laplace rule" or just naively adding together averages.