What is the point of forecasting events? The groups who need to act on the events will ignore the forecast or use it to self delude themselves into not acting, others will prepare for events by ignoring the forecasting.
Ukraine for example, prepared itself despite forecasts of low probability of an attack. Israel's military intelligence on the other hand knew the details of Hamas attack to the point and chose to ignore it despite high probability of the event.
Ukraine for example, prepared itself despite forecasts of low probability of an attack. Israel's military intelligence on the other hand knew the details of Hamas attack to the point and chose to ignore it despite high probability of the event.