Comment Comment by draaglom Yes, serious forecasters predict on hundreds of questions & the relevant websites prominently feature "binary calibration" plots.This is mine on Metaculus (mentioned in the article):https://imgur.com/a/d3s67xkThere's still a bit of noise at 205 predictions but you can see a pattern emerging! parent draaglom 2 years ago
This is mine on Metaculus (mentioned in the article):
https://imgur.com/a/d3s67xk
There's still a bit of noise at 205 predictions but you can see a pattern emerging!