Comment by jemmyw

I see a particular problem with this kind of prediction which maybe someone else can explain. If you are predicting one off events like China invading Taiwan, or London being hit by a nuclear weapon, as a percentage, how can you ever know if the prediction was accurate? Whether the event happens or not does not validate or invalidate the percent chance of it happening. Is there some kind of aggregate that happens to all the predictions to validate them? If you give invasion an 8% chance and invasion happens it doesn't mean you're wrong, just that the world fell into that 8%.