I remember reading in The Signal and The Noise* that people _think_ that forecasts are bad if it rains, but the chance of rain was reported as below 50%. Getting rain when the forecast told you there would probably not be rain is annoying; getting a sunny day when the forecast predicted likely rain is a pleasant surprise.
To get what people judge to be a ‘good forecast’, the chance of rain has to be adjusted to be wildly too high - so that’s what consumer-focused forecasters do.
To get what people judge to be a ‘good forecast’, the chance of rain has to be adjusted to be wildly too high - so that’s what consumer-focused forecasters do.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Signal_and_the_Noise