You’ve incorrectly assumed that I would be showing you a goat in every case. But that is not included in the prompt. All you know is that you were shown a goat on one play. This is possible in the setup I’ve listed. You landed in that 33% case where you chose a car.
There is nothing in the prompt that says we are not playing my variant of the game.
Being told that you SAW a goat does not mean you would ALWAYS SEE a goat if the previous conditions had gone differently. And that is why you’re wrong :)
Again
> all you know is that he opened a goat door
You’ve incorrectly assumed that I would be showing you a goat in every case. But that is not included in the prompt. All you know is that you were shown a goat on one play. This is possible in the setup I’ve listed. You landed in that 33% case where you chose a car.
There is nothing in the prompt that says we are not playing my variant of the game.
Being told that you SAW a goat does not mean you would ALWAYS SEE a goat if the previous conditions had gone differently. And that is why you’re wrong :)
Again > all you know is that he opened a goat door