I'm concerned that Xi might be more concerned with leaving a legacy than with practical goals when it comes to Taiwan. The civil war was never fully won and resolving that seems important to him. I hope it's just posturing.
Very scary for everyone and especially the US. Think several lost carriers within the first 24-36 hrs
Edit: important to note that at the end of the episode they discuss that the wargaming exercise assumed < 100 dedicated amphibian landing boats, but Chinese officials have previously said that they'd use their merchant marine which would mean we are talking about thousand of ships! The whole thing is unfathomable and clearly unprecedented since WWII
On the feasibility of an invasion: there was a very good episode of the Sinica podcast on wargaming this: https://thechinaproject.com/2023/08/17/wargaming-a-taiwan-in...
Very scary for everyone and especially the US. Think several lost carriers within the first 24-36 hrs
Edit: important to note that at the end of the episode they discuss that the wargaming exercise assumed < 100 dedicated amphibian landing boats, but Chinese officials have previously said that they'd use their merchant marine which would mean we are talking about thousand of ships! The whole thing is unfathomable and clearly unprecedented since WWII