I am skeptical of this paper. If you go to Wikipedia's list of most intense tropical cyclones[1] and sort by barometric pressure, there doesn't seem to be much correlation with time. The biggest and most intense tropical cyclone is still Typhoon Tip in 1979.[2] If you read the actual study[3], it looks like they do a lot of data manipulation and simulation to come to their conclusion. They subtract 15 meters/sec from wind speeds measured before 1973, claiming a bias in measurements from that time. This causes a huge step up in lifetime maximum intensity in the 1970s. Their estimates of future category 6 probabilities are from simulations that they admit don't simulate current conditions correctly.
I think it's more likely than not that tropical cyclones are getting more intense, and that they're hitting places that didn't typically get hit in the past, but I don't find this paper convincing. It really feels like they cajoled the data to fit their conclusion.
I think it's more likely than not that tropical cyclones are getting more intense, and that they're hitting places that didn't typically get hit in the past, but I don't find this paper convincing. It really feels like they cajoled the data to fit their conclusion.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropi...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip
3. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2308901121